The so-called "generic" ballot question shows that 45 percent of likely U.S. voters would pick the Republican congressional candidate while just 39 percent would pick the Democrat.

 

Twelve percent say they don't know which one they'd vote for, or they aren't sure.

 

Independents also say they'll vote for the GOP candidate, as will suburban and rural voters. Those who live in urban areas tend to vote more for the Democrat.