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The Campaign Trail
Republican AGs Make $3.8 Million Buy Supporting Buck Newton PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Monday, 20 June 2016 15:42
The Republican Attorneys General Association said it has reserved ad time for the five weeks leading up to the November general election in support of Republican state senator Buck Newton in his bid against Democrat Josh Stein in their contest for North Carolina Attorney General. 
 
The buy includes broadcast and cable advertising, and will cost $3.8 million.
 
“RAGA is on the offense in 2016, and we are committed to expanding our already strong majority of Republican attorneys general, with North Carolina being a prime pick-up opportunity,” Executive Director Scott Will said in a statement announcing the buy.
 
The buy comes after the organization spent $14 million in 2014 in support of Republican candidates for state attorney general.  After the 2014 elections, GOP attorneys general outnumbered Democrats for the first time, with 27 elected to the office.
 
 
Last Updated on Monday, 20 June 2016 15:47
 
Burr - VP Talk Is Just A Rumor PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Administrator   
Friday, 17 June 2016 14:40
North Carolina Senator Richard Burr said word that his name is being vetted as a possible running mate for Republican presidential candidate Donal Trump is more rumor than reality. 
 
“Every name that’s been floated up to this point is speculation,” Burr told McClatchy News. "I don’t think any of it – to my knowledge – has any credible nexus with the campaign.”
 
Radio pundit Hugh Hewitt claimed to have been tipped off on Burr being a contender by someone close to the Trump campaign.
 
As Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, Burr could bring critical political credentials to Trump’s White House race, given the presumptive nominee’s lack of experience in elected office.
 
Trump has said he’ll announce his VP pick at next month’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.
 
But, would Burr like to be considered for the Republican presidential ticket?
 
“It’s not something that I’m even remotely concerned about,” he said.
 
George Holding Crushes Renee Ellmers In Battle of Congressional Incumbents PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Donna Martinez   
Wednesday, 08 June 2016 13:25
RALEIGH — Incumbent Rep. Renee Ellmers of the 2nd Congressional District was trounced by 13th District U.S. Rep. George Holding in a primary election made necessary after the courts earlier this year ordered North Carolina's congressional districts redrawn.
 
The congressional primary was mandated after a three-judge federal court panel ruled in February the districts drawn in 2011 by the General Assembly violated the federal Voting Rights Act. Lawmakers drew new maps in a special legislative session, and last Thursday, the court upheld the districts.
 
Businessman Ted Budd came up on top in a 17-person primary which included General Assembly members Sen. Andrew Brock and Reps. Julia Howard, John Blust, and Harry Warren. Budd received 20 percent of the vote. 
 
Incumbent Alma Adams, who until recently lived in Guilford County, easily won a seven-way Democratic primary in the 12th District, which was was shifted entirely into Mecklenburg County.
 
There were no primaries in the 1st or 7th Congressional Districts, and in several districts, candidates for one party ran unopposed. These candidates won primaries on Tuesday and will appear on the Nov. 8 general election ballot:
 
N.C. Supreme Court 
Bob Edmunds (I); Mike Morgan
 
U.S. House of Representatives
 
2nd District
Republican George Holding (13th District incumbent); Democrat John McNeil
 
3rd District
Republican Walter Jones (I); Democrat Ernest Reeves
 
4th District
Republican Sue Googe
 
5th District
Republican Virginia Foxx (I); Democrat Josh Brannon
 
6th District
Republican Mark Walker (I)
 
8th District
Republican Richard Hudson (i)
 
9th District
Republican Robert Pittenger (I) led Mark Harris by 0.5 percent before provisional ballots had been counted and results certified
 
10th District
Republican Patrick McHenry (I)
 
11th District
Democrat Rick Bryson led Tom Hill by 0.5 percent before provisional ballots had been counted and results verified
 
12th District
Democrat Alma Adams (I); Republican Leon Threatt
 
13th District
Republican Ted Budd; Democrat Bruce David led Bob Isner by 0.6 percent before provisional ballots had been counted and results verified
Last Updated on Wednesday, 08 June 2016 13:31
 
Trump, Burr Have Small Leads in North Carolina PDF Print E-mail
The Campaign Trail
By Donna Martinez   
Tuesday, 07 June 2016 13:06

By Public Policy Polling

PPP's new North Carolina poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 43-41 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 3% and Jill Stein at 2%. Trump's 2 point lead represents a 4 point improvement from our March poll of the state, when Clinton was ahead by a couple points. The movement has come completely among Republicans. In March Clinton was up 79-13 among Democrats, and now she's up 79-12 among Democrats. In March Trump was up 49-32 among independents, and now he's up 45-27 among independents. But in March Trump was only up by 63 points among Republicans at 73/10, and now he has a 76 point lead among them at 81/5. That's the entire reason the race has shifted from a slight Clinton advantage to a slight Trump advantage. 

If a 2 point advantage for Trump held through November, that would match Mitt Romney's margin of victory in 2012 in North Carolina. That's a trend we've found in a lot of our recent polling- the race is shaping up very similarly to how things went between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

Geography

Most Recent PPP Poll

2012 Results

North Carolina

Trump +2

Romney +2

New Mexico

Clinton +8

Obama +10

Arizona

Trump +2

Romney +10

National

Clinton +4

Obama +4

West Virginia

Trump +27

Romney +27

Ohio

Clinton +3

Obama +3

Every place we've polled in the last month we've found the Clinton/Trump race within a few points of where the Obama/Romney race ended up with the exception of Arizona, where there were a disproportionate share of Republican voters on the fence and we would expect them to eventually come home and give Trump a broader advantage. There was so much talk earlier this year of Clinton winning some sort of historical landslide that expectations got out of whack and now fuel perceptions that she's doing really poorly, but the bottom line is she's pretty much where Obama was in an election that while relatively close in the popular vote ended up as an electoral college landslide.

For what it's worth Bernie Sanders leads Trump 43/40 in North Carolina with Johnson at 3% and Stein at 2% getting the same share of the vote they get in a race with Clinton. The difference between how Clinton and Sanders perform against Trump continues to come completely among younger voters. With those under 45 Clinton is ahead by 4 at 42/38, but Sanders is up by 16 at 48/32.

North Carolina's Senate race continues to be surprisingly competitive. Richard Burr's lead is just 3 points at 39% to 36% for Deborah Ross, and 8% for Libertarian Sean Haugh. Burr continues to be pretty unpopular with only 28% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 40% who disapprove. Ross is largely a blank slate to voters with 64% having no opinion about her one way or another. Opinions split evenly at 18/18 when it comes to her favorability/unfavorability

One issue that's shaping up to cause trouble for Burr right now is that of the vacant Supreme Court seat. 58% of voters in the state think Merrick Garland deserves confirmation hearings for his nomination to the Court, compared to only 24% of voters who are opposed to that. By a 17 point margin voters say they're less likely to vote for a Senator who is opposed to hearings- only 25% say that stance would make them more inclined to vote for their Senator, compared to 42% who say that would make them less likely to.

Finally we find Thom Tillis with a 27% approval rating this month, to 35% of voters who disapprove of him. Those are actually better approval numbers than we've generally found him with.

Full results here

 
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